Jokers in th Deck | Russell T. Rudy Energy LLC
Given the large sums of money involved in energy investments, a great deal of analysis goes into making these decisions. A major step in this process is projecting what can be expected in the future. Forecasts are based on assumptions which might be a result of what has happened in the past, and if the same trends will continue into the future. Also, independent variables can be identified which can be expected to drive other factors in the future. Whatever the methodology, no one can foretell the future with complete accuracy. Sometimes we are more prescient than others, but we are always haunted by the unanticipated events that can perplex prognosticators and confound forecasters.
In “World Oil” magazine’s “Forecast and Data 2015 Executive Summary” the editors conclude with the following “Wild Cards” which could change everything. These include:
–Domestic Politics-Aggressive EPA regulations and anti-fracking mandates could derail the shale revolution.
–Hurricanes-We have had a respite from major hurricanes offshore for the last several years. A Category 5 storm could significantly disrupt drilling and production in the Gulf of Mexico.
–International Politics-Political turmoil, especially in the Middle East, could start a panic among oil consumers and spike demand and prices. Conversely, a major player such as Saudi Arabia could boost production and start another price slide.
All, some, or none of these might happen in 2015. The only thing we know for sure is that we can never anticipate all the eventualities.
To learn more, please go to www.worldoil.com .
