Wood Mackenzie's Forecast for Unconventional Oil and Gas | Russell T. Rudy Energy LLC
“Rigzone” cites a study by the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie which projects tight oil production in the lower 48 states rising to 6 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) by 2020, primarily from the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp plays. This would be approximately 2/3 of total forecast domestic production of 9 million bopd.
The Wood Mackenzie analysis predicted 2020 production in the Eagle Ford at 2 million bopd, the Bakken at 1.7 million, and the Wolfcamp at 800,000 bopd. Lower 48 gas production is expected to reach 25 billion cubic feet per day, primarily due to increased output from the Marcellus and Utica shales.
North American unconventional plays are drawing world-wide attention as international oil companies (defined as majors, but excluding national enterprises) doubled their reserve positions in the U. S. from 2007 to 2013. This reflects more growth on a volume basis than in all other regions combined.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that 21 billion barrels of crude will ultimately be produced in North Dakota’s Bakken shale. Initial efforts in the play concentrated on drilling wells to hold acreage by production. Now attention has shifted to maximizing production. Bakken development has been challenged by lack of processing and transportation infrastructure. This has resulted in significant flaring, and safety issues related to rail transportation. However, the industry is addressing these problems and solutions are being implemented.
By 2020 the Production from the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas is expected to equal peak output of Alaska’s North Slope. This year 3,300 new wells are anticipated and an additional 3,000 per year for the rest of the decade.
The Wolfcamp play in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico has achieved elite status as well. The area has been producing oil for a century and is looking at a long future of flush production primarily from the Wolfcamp and several other promising unconventional prospects. Operators with at least five years of experience in the play who have made a major capital commitment are outperforming their peers. Lack of mid-stream facilities and personnel are seen as potential limiting factors in the Permian Basin. However, there is considerable infrastructure in place and people in the area are familiar with oil and gas operations and understand the potential benefits of development.
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